Strong nine-month performance

Presenting a report on the country’s socio-economic situation at the Government’s regular September meeting on October 3, Minister of Finance Ngo Van Tuan said GDP was estimated to have expanded 9.95% year on year in the third quarter, bringing the nine-month rate to 9.01%.

The estimate places economic activity in the first nine months at its strongest level in many years. Industry and construction led the main sectors, with output estimated to have risen 11.21%, the highest rate since 2015. Services expanded 8.69%, while agriculture, forestry and fisheries grew 4.02%, broadly in line with the full-year scenario.

The Finance Ministry attributed the overall performance to improvements across both production and demand. Domestic consumption rose 13.4% in the nine-month period, close to the lower end of the full-year target of 13-15%.

International tourism was also a major contributor, with 17.7 million foreign arrivals documented during the period, up 14.5% year on year and the highest level ever recorded.

Total social investment reached VND3.11 quadrillion, an annual increase of 15.1%. Investment in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City climbed 19% and 17.3%, respectively.

Registered foreign direct investment amounted to US$50.36 billion, up 76.4%, while disbursed FDI reached US$21.07 billion, an increase of 12.1%.

Trade also maintained strong momentum. Total import and export turnover hit US$888 billion, up 30.4% from a year earlier. Exports stood at US$434.3 billion, rising 24.5% and already exceeding the full-year target, while imports increased 36.7% to US$453.7 billion. The country recorded a trade surplus of US$1.27 billion in September, reversing the deficit seen earlier in the year.

Pressure builds in final quarter

Despite the strong nine-month performance, Finance Minister Tuan warned that achieving double-digit economic growth for the full year is a major challenge.

According to the report, the nine-month figure was still about one percentage point below the annual target, meaning GDP would need to expand 12.5% in the fourth quarter to achieve the full-year goal. At the local level, 24 of the 34 centrally governed provinces and cities were still growing below their respective annual targets, adding to the pressure on the final three months.

The ministry also pointed to several constraints, including relatively modest growth in domestic consumption, slow investment by some large State-owned enterprises and delays in public investment disbursement. Seven ministries and agencies had disbursed less than 15% of their assigned public investment funds or had yet to make disbursements.

Major projects continued to face difficulties related to site clearance, material supplies and high labour costs. The country also remained in a trade deficit of US$19.42 billion over the first nine months.

Meanwhile, the report noted that a number of households continued to face economic difficulties, while natural disasters, storms and flooding remained unpredictable.

Fiscal and monetary measures to support growth

Given the performance, the Finance Ministry put forward a series of measures to sustain economic momentum in the final months of the year.

On fiscal policy, it proposed that the Government issue a decree reducing by 30% the tax payable by businesses and household businesses with annual revenue of no more than VND10 billion. It also proposed measures concerning the temporary advance from the State budget to the Petroleum Price Stabilisation Fund and the introduction of an official public-investment disbursement scoring system from the October assessment period.

The scores are expected to serve as a basis for reallocating capital and preparing the 2027 public investment plan. Ministries, agencies and localities are set to disburse 100% of their assigned public investment plans, with capital to be transferred from slow-moving projects to those with greater demand where necessary.

The State Bank of Vietnam was tasked with maintaining a proactive and flexible monetary policy while coordinating closely with fiscal policy, balancing inflation control with support for economic activity. Credit growth of around 15% is targeted, with lending directed towards production, business activities and priority sectors, alongside measures to improve access to finance for small and medium-sized enterprises and contain risks in vulnerable areas.

The authorities will also step up efforts to deal with bad debts.

Production, trade and investment remain key drivers

The Ministry of Industry and Trade is expected to ensure adequate supplies of electricity and petroleum products, promote energy efficiency and coordinate measures related to the Petroleum Price Stabilisation Fund.

Ministries and localities will also closely monitor prices of State-managed goods, ensure adequate supplies during the year-end period and take action against speculation, hoarding and unreasonable price increases.

To support production, trade and domestic consumption, authorities will tighten controls over product origins and help textile, garment, footwear and wood-processing businesses maintain orders, diversify markets and make better use of free trade agreements.

The Government also plans to further develop the domestic market and capitalise on the year-end consumption season while maintaining price stability.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment and localities have been tasked with working towards agricultural, forestry and fishery exports of more than US$74 billion this year. Priorities include resolving problems involving growing and farming area codes and traceability, as well as removing the European Commission’s yellow card on illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing in 2026.

The Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism and localities will work towards the target of 25 million international visitors, promote domestic tourism and stimulate consumption.

State-owned groups and corporations have also been asked to accelerate production and business activities to meet their 2026 targets, with agencies representing State ownership strengthening oversight and addressing difficulties facing enterprises.

On investment and construction, the Ministry of Construction and localities will complete site clearance for key expressway projects in October, accelerate projects with low disbursement rates and coordinate supplies of sand and stone for major works.

The authorities will also step up licensing and exploitation of new material sources, improve management of construction material supplies and prices, and work towards completing about 97,300 social and rental housing units this year.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment is scheduled to complete a national database on construction material supplies and an inter-regional coordination mechanism in October.

Improving the business environment and implementation capacity

The report also places emphasis on institutional reform and a more favourable business environment.

The Ministry of Justice and other ministries will complete draft laws and resolutions for submission to the second session of the National Assembly, issue detailed regulations on schedule and tighten controls over the introduction of new administrative procedures and business conditions.

Authorities will continue cutting compliance and logistics costs, completing planning adjustments and reviewing technical regulations, standards and economic-technical norms.

The Ministry of Home Affairs, ministries and localities will also address difficulties in operating the two-tier local government system and strengthen implementation capacity at the grassroots level. Leaders have been asked to deal with surplus offices, houses and land following administrative restructuring to prevent deterioration and waste.

Digital transformation remains another priority. The Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of Science and Technology and localities will complete a 100-day campaign to address bottlenecks in digital transformation, work towards full disbursement of State budget funds allocated under Resolution No. 57-NQ/TW and accelerate programmes and projects involving strategic technologies.

Alongside economic measures, the Government will continue to focus on culture, social welfare, health care, education and environmental protection, including improvements in health screening, disease prevention, food safety, employment support and social assistance.

Authorities have also been instructed to strengthen disaster forecasting and prepare forces, equipment and response plans to protect lives and property as storms and floods remain difficult to predict.