Following a strong start to the year, growth is entering a phase of normalisation amid a more complex global backdrop, including rising inflationary pressures and shifting trade dynamics. Despite these near-term challenges, Vietnam’s economic fundamentals remain supportive of steady growth.

This current economic backdrop is notably complicated by a widening trade deficit, which has expanded to US$13 billion in the first five months of 2026, against a US$5 billion surplus recorded during the same period last year. Given these developments, Standard Chartered expects the policy rate to remain steady at 4.5% for the rest of 2026. June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is believed to have remained above the government’s 4.5% target, with this trend set to persist into the second half. Q2 inflation is forecasted to rise above 5.0% year-on-year, compared to 3.5% in Q1, driven largely by rising prices in transport, food, housing, and construction materials.

Additionally, macroeconomic data for June may indicate a moderation in activity. Retail sales growth is expected to have slowed to 8.2% (from 11.8% in May), export growth to 16.2% (from 18.0%), and industrial production growth to 5.2% (from 8.8%). Meanwhile, import growth likely continued its upward trend, reaching 45.0% (compared to 33.8%). The trade deficit may have widened even further to US$ 7.3 billion (up from US$ 5.2 billion).

Tim Leelahaphan, Senior Economist for Vietnam and Thailand at Standard Chartered Bank, said “Vietnam’s economic performance in the first half of 2026 reflects both resilience and ongoing challenges. We expect the policy rate to remain unchanged and anticipate inflationary momentum to continue through the second half of the year. Despite the moderation in some indicators, Vietnam’s economy is poised to navigate these headwinds with steady growth.”

Standard Chartered wins Best Retail Bank in Vietnam at RBI Asia Trailblazer Awards

VOV.VN - Standard Chartered Bank has been awarded Best Retail Bank Vietnam 2026 at the 17th Annual Retail Banker International (RBI) Asia Trailblazer Awards 2026, marking the fifth consecutive year the Bank has received this recognition.